"[Probable Justice] is a fascinating book linking the increasing understanding of the mathematics of probability and risk from the Enlightenment to the development of the welfare state in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries through to today."

Economic Record

"An extremely timely and worthwhile read. Probability theory, economic theory, and social responsibility theory support an intriguing discourse to satisfy the academic appetite. . . .  Friedman provides rich context to allow for further research and exploration. . . . Highly recommended."

Choice

"Tracing a conceptual and political history of the practice from the time of the French Revolution through the present, Friedman argues that social insurance is a distributive regime that by its nature combines distinct principles and aims, including individual liberty or autonomy and social equality or solidarity. Her argument has implications for the definition, protection,and promotion of social rights and the role of anti-discrimination law with respect to private insurance."

Law & Social Inquiry

"[Tremendously] valuable for helping us reflect on our predicament.”

European Journal of Political Theory

"Normative theory, in particular, ought to heed Friedman’s careful examination of the foundational ideas behind the modern welfare state and the distinction it points to between forward- and backward-facing ideals of justice."

Political Theory

“Probable Justice advances a strikingly original—and quite brilliant—argument about the common duality of probability as a philosophical concept and social insurance as a political expedient, both of which Friedman reveals are essentially ‘Janus-faced.’”

William P. Deringer, author of Calculated Values: Finance, Politics, and the Quantitative Age

“Friedman powerfully brings together three traditions of thought: theory on risk and probability, ethical principles of distributive justice, and political theory on the purpose of social insurance or the welfare state. Her image of civil society as a great mutual insurer with coercive power will reorient political thinking on the welfare state.”

James Franklin, author of The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal

“Probable Justice is a brilliant synthesis of the history of insurance and theories of probability. It combines social theory (e.g., social insurance and the welfare state) with an outstanding discussion of the ambiguities in probability theory. One of the most illuminating books I have encountered on the influence of probabilistic ideas on theories of justice.”

Morton Horwitz, author of The Warren Court and the Pursuit of Justice

“Friedman’s thoughtful and thought-provoking study reveals how diverse conceptions of probability have always been morally tinged. Whether framed as prudential individualism, frequentist solidarity, or a subjective bet, how we calculate risk turns out to have far-reaching consequences for how we think about what the state owes its citizens and citizens owe each other.”

Lorraine Daston, coauthor of How Reason Almost Lost Its Mind: The Strange Career of Cold War Rationality